The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander one of the po sible candidates. reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are among the teams expected to have strong interest in the righty. The Rays arent fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either addre s another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals. Each of , and began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, , , and for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz. A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isnt expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmu sen both currently on rehab a signments. Its therefore po sible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have and around as depth and then should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery. Most of the pitchers in Tampas rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year. That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with . While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Kyle Harrison Jersey Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024. He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, to sing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot. With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. Hes been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but hes limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%. Health has been an i sue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, hes already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back i sues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks. That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost to UCL surgery and also saw head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like and . Currently, their rotation consists of , , and , with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but theres risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though hes stayed healthy this year. Lpez was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Mortons gas tank might also be a factor just because hes now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors. The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a po sibility to consider retiring at seasons end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, Lpez and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but its no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense. The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of . If they cro s the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next years draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line. Eflins CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a players CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this years $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, thats $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM. A suming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflins entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next years CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves. The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with and both requiring Tommy John surgery. has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. is also on the shelf with a neck injury. Their current rotation consists of , , , and . Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Blo s is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Blo s are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year. Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houstons CBT number is currently at $256MM, per . Thats just shy of the $257MM second line but cro sing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties. The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of , , and . With injured, they have had holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall. Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but its not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold. Matt Chapman Jersey
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