Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commi sion if you sign up through our links. Read our for more information. See Also New York Yankees Youd think that the Home Run Derby would be a pretty straightforward sporting event to handicap, but the reality is that its a crapshoot, especially with the new format. Last years Derby, the first under the new format, was won by Teoscar Hernandez, who had the sixth-longest odds of any player in the field. Even more surprising was the fact that none of the four favorites entering Daniel Castano Jersey the competition Pete Alonso, Adolis Garcia, Marcell Ozuna, and Gunnar Henderson made it out of the first round. Perhaps it was just a weird outlier, but the fact that none of the projected favorites, including a two-time winner in Alonso, made it out of the opening round suggests that this new format breeds more chaos than previous iterations. Explore More Instead of pitting individuals against one another from the outset, the current format gives each of the eight players three minutes and a maximum of 40 pitches (whatever comes first) to hit as many home runs as po sible. After the limit is reached, they get a bonus period to add to their total before recording three outs (non-home runs). Matt Olson has the benefit of home-field advantage on Monday. Getty Images The four players who hit the most homers are then seeded and put into a bracket, with each round (1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3) following the same format as the first, but with a shorter clock (two minutes or 27 pitches). Whatever the reason, these new rules seemed to benefit the underdogs, and it was Hernandez and Bobby Witt Jr. who made it to the final, which was won by Hernandez, 14-13. None of the players from last years Derby are participating in 2025, which levels the playing field even further. 2025 Home Run Derby odds Player Odds Cal Raleigh +295 Oneil Cruz +320 James Wood +475 Matt Olson +800 Brent Rooker +850 Byron Buxton +950 Jazz Chisholm 11/1 Junior Caminero 12/1 Odds via Seattles Cal Raleigh is the current betting favorite at +295. Raleigh leads the Major Leagues with 38 home runs, which is already four more than his previous career high. Pittsburghs Oneil Cruz, who has just 16 home runs but leads the Major Leagues in average exit velocity, is right behind Raleigh at +320. James Wood, a rising star for the Washington Nationals, is the third choice at DraftKings with +475 odds. Matt Olson (+800), Brent Rooker (+850), Byron Buxton (+950), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (11/1), and Junior Caminero (12/1) round out the field. There is no right or wrong way to handicap the Home Run Derby, but it does seem like a good idea to swerve the chalk. Raleigh, because of his home-run total, and Cruz, because of his batted-ball stats, are logical favorites, but this isnt a competition that is always ruled by logic, and wed want a bigger payout in an event that is a gue sing game. Continuing the proce s of elimination, well draw a line through Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been battling injuries and just isnt a prolific home run hitter. If you were going off true odds, Chisholm would likely be the biggest price, but since hes getting hit with a Yankee Tax. Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays. Eric Canha-Imagn Images By throwing out the three players at the top, weve whittled down our choices to five players between +800 and 12/1. The four participants left in our pool have similar stats, but a couple of things stand out to help direct us to our two picks for our best bets on Monday night. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Read about the Learn all about Matt Olson is our first pick at +800. A late replacement for the injured Ronald Acuna Jr., Olson is playing in his home park, which could give him enough of a leg up against the rest of the pack to make this price worth a wager. Olson also boasts the second-best average exit velocity in the field behind Cruz. The other player were backing is Caminero. With 23 home runs and strong batted ball stats, theres not much that separates the Tampa Bay Ray from the rest of this field. Hes just not as well-known as some of the other participants, which is allowing us to get him at a discounted price. Why Trust New York Post Betting Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports. Darren Mccaughan Jersey