By Will HillFOX Sports Betting AnalystMany of the awards given out every February can be confusing and open to interpretation when it comes to the criteria (I'm looking at you, Comeback Player of the Year). However, MVP is not one of those.Running back Adrian Peterson won the award in 2012 after nearly breaking the all-time rushing record for a single season. In the 11 years since, its been all quarterbacks.Further simplifying things, all of those 11 quarterbacks have been on teams that are either No. 1 or 2 seeds (and division winners).ADVERTISEMENT Go all the way back to 2007, the year after LaDanian Tomlinson won the honors, and all but one MVP winner was a quarterback and on a team that was a top-two Shed Long Jr. Jersey seed.Along with Peterson, Peyton Manning in 2008 was the only exception, as he won the award on a team that was a No. 5 seed at 12-4.You get the idea: This award almost always goes to the quarterback of one of the best teams in the league.Fast-forward to this upcoming season. If you look at the NFC, the Over/Under for season wins is a shade higher than 11. The , and are all slightly under that number. Overall, the Lions are projected to be an elite team.However, the quarterbacks for the other three teams have MVP odds of 14-1, 16-1 and 20-1, respectively.Lions quarterback is listed at 35-1 nearly double the payout of the other contenders.This number seems mispriced, especially considering we know the criteria of what constitutes an MVP in the modern era. Remember, its the quarterback of one of the best teams in football.Goffs Lions won the division last year. They also held a 17-point, second-half lead in last year's NFC title game in San Francisco before losing 35-32 in a heartbreaker.If it werent for a couple of key drops and a fumble, Goff would have been headed to his second Super Bowl.Packers, Lions, Vikings or Bears: Which is the best team in the NFC North? The narrative on Goff has changed.At first, he was a bust. Then he was viewed by many as merely a product of Sean Mcvays system. Now, I think the consensus is that Goff is just a solid football player. Since joining the Lions, he has 79 touchdowns, with just 27 interceptions. And he's thrown for over 12,000 yards in three seasons. won this award in 2018 at a ridiculous preseason price of 75-1 as a first-year starter. The next year, won it at around a similar long-shot number of 70-1. Even in 2020, a resurgent was a 30-1 winner.With betting becoming more popular, those astronomical payouts are simply not available for players who have any chance to win.Mahomes, , and are all 10-1 or shorter, for example.But if youre looking for someone further down the board, Goff at 35-1 is the best combination of long odds with a realistic chance to win.PICK: Jared Goff to win MVP (+3500)Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily! Tyler Locklear Jersey